山区河流洪水预报中水文模型参数优化分析

Optimization Analysis of Hydrological Model Parameters in Flood Forecasting for Mountain Rivers

摘要:

山区河流洪水预报通过构建高精度水文模型并优化关键参数,实现对复杂地形降雨- 径流过程的精准模拟与预警。文章阐述了构建水文模型时要素整合与空间分辨率配置的方法,介绍了基于敏感性分析、多目标演化算法与混合优化策略对土壤曲线数、导水率与河道阻力系数等参数进行校准的技术要点,并通过典型案例验证了优化后模型在洪峰预测精度提高(NSE由0.65提升至0.84)、RMSE显著降低及预报提前期延长等效果。结果表明:自动化参数优化可大幅提升山区洪水预报可靠性,为防洪调度与风险管理提供科学支撑。

Abstract:

Flood forecasting for mountain rivers realizes accurate simulation and early warning of the rainfall- runoff process in complex terrain by constructing high- precision hydrological models and optimizing key parameters. This paper expounds the methods of element integration and spatial resolution configuration in constructing hydrological models, introduces the technical points of calibrating parameters such as soil curve number, hydraulic conductivity, and channel resistance coefficient based on sensitivity analysis, multi- objective evolutionary algorithms, and hybrid optimization strategies. Through typical cases, it verifies the effects of the optimized model, such as increased flood peak prediction accuracy (NSE increased from 0.65 to 0.84), significantly reduced RMSE, and extended forecast lead time. The results show that automatic parameter optimization can greatly improve the reliability of mountain flood forecasting, providing scientific support for flood control scheduling and risk management.