小清河流域不同等级降水时空变化特征分析

Temporal and Spatial Variation Characteristics of Precipitation of Different Grades in the Xiaoqing River Basin

摘要:

为揭示小清河流域降水时空变化规律及趋势,文章选用流域内21个站点1978—2022年的逐日降水数据,利用线性分析、反距离权重插值和重标极差(R/S)分析法对不同等级降水进行时空分布分析。结果表明:近45a小清河流域不同等级降水量和降水日数均呈增长趋势;各等级降水量和降水日数空间分布基本一致;中雨对年降水量的贡献率最高,为28.62%,小雨对年降水日数的发生率最高,为72.85%;不同等级降水量和年降水量的相关系数随降水等级的提高而增大,降水日数相关系数则相反;各等级降水量和降水日数均呈现不同程度正相关持续性,即未来变化趋势与过去基本一致。

Abstract:

To reveal the temporal and spatial variation laws and trends of precipitation in the Xiaoqing River Basin, daily precipitation data from 21 stations in the basin from 1978 to 2022 were selected. Linear analysis, inverse distance weighted interpolation, and rescaled range (R/S) analysis were used to analyze the temporal and spatial distribution of precipitation of different grades. The results show that in the recent 45 years, the precipitation amount and precipitation days of different grades in the Xiaoqing River Basin have shown an increasing trend; the spatial distribution of precipitation amount and precipitation days of each grade is basically consistent; moderate rain has the highest contribution rate to annual precipitation, accounting for 28.62%, and light rain has the highest occurrence rate of annual precipitation days, accounting for 72.85%; the correlation coefficient between precipitation amount of different grades and annual precipitation increases with the improvement of precipitation grade, while the correlation coefficient of precipitation days is the opposite; the precipitation amount and precipitation days of each grade show positive correlation persistence to varying degrees, that is, the future variation trend is basically consistent with the past.