峡山水库汛限水位动态控制模型研究

Study on Dynamic Control Model for Flood limit Water Level of Xiashan Reservoir

摘要:

为在保障防洪安全这一重要前提下大力挖掘兴利潜力,切实提高峡山水库洪水资源化利用水平。本研究积极开展汛限水位动态控制模型相关研究工作,精心构建了以入库洪水预报、动态控制域计算以及联合调度为核心的技术模型体系,同时明确了一种基于预报预泄能力的动态控制域确定新方法,并将洪水预报模块与充分考虑防洪、供水等多目标的优化调度模型进行有机集成,通过运用历史洪水资料开展模拟调度,进行对比分析。结果显示,动态控制方案能够在有效维持防洪安全标准的同时,显著提升汛末蓄水位和可供水量,成功实现洪水资源的安全合理利用。该模型能够在可控风险范围之内极大增加水库综合效益,从而为水库精细化调度以及水资源高效利用提供坚实技术支撑。

Abstract:

Under the premise of ensuring flood control safety, it is essential to fully tap the beneficial potential and effectively improve the flood water resource utilization of Xiashan Reservoir. This paper conducts research on the dynamic control model for flood limit water level. A technical model system centering on inflow flood forecasting, dynamic control range calculation and joint operation is constructed. A new method for determining the dynamic control range based on forecast aided pre discharge capacity is proposed. The flood forecasting module is organically integrated with an optimal operation model that takes multiple objectives including flood control and water supply into account. Simulated operation and comparative analysis are carried out using historical flood data. The results show that the dynamic control scheme can remarkably raise the water level at the end of flood season and available water volume while maintaining flood control safety standards. Safe and rational utilization of flood water resources is realized. Within controllable risk margins, the model greatly increases comprehensive reservoir benefits and provides solid technical support for refined reservoir operation and efficient water resource utilization.